Friday, February 13, 2015

2014 Self-Assessment: Not bad at all!

I am not trying to brag or something (ok, I feel proud that my studies and efforts proved somehow fruitful), I did not do something exceptional but to implement what I have been taught! I invite you to see this assessment in defence of existing Macroeconomic framework; it might not be 100% correct and accurate, but it is not rubbish either! 

Deflation: An Intermediate Exercise, of Febr. 24, 2014: To the bull's eye for deflation!!! "In conclusion, deflation is more likely to appear in the Eurozone than in the US, and any ECB action will find it difficult to tame the inimical price developments. Intermediate Macroeconomics models are not that bad in the end, are they?"
But mistaken to Euro depreciation " Secondly, interest rates (both expected and realized) abroad are also close to zero and we should not expect any depreciation to enhance exports even more"
Effects of recently announced QE, remain to be seen.

No Supply-Demand laws for the Public Debt markets?, May 20, 2014: To the bull's eye! No rates increased after the announcement of the June 2014 QE (asset-backed securities open market purchases). Au contraire...

Preliminary Macro: Rising Euro-zone Trade Surplus is Good or Bad News?, of Aug. 20, 2014: 1] "the increased trade surplus simply shows that in the Eurozone we are slowing down but not shrinking": Correct; no recession in the Euro Area for the last semester of 2014.2] but, in the end I messed it up "recession is imminent, if you ask me, the third one in the last 6 years"; no recession so far.

The failing "success story"... of October 15, 2014: Again, to the bull's eye!1] "Anyway, as I wrote a few months earlier the borrowing cost was,  is and will remain prohibitive for a very long time. Until we raise adequate budget surpluses to finance our debt obligations, including annual interest payments, we cannot cut all ties with the IMF. Why particularly the IMF? Because, our Euro partners will find it hard to convince their tax payers to fund us even more, and the markets know that."2] "considerable political unrest is about to unveil"

And the lattest, a tweet:

From Reuters "UPDATE 1-ECB's Nowotny: Greek banks can get funding even if deal not agreed"

Much better than 2013; a louzy year for me...

Other blogs posts are opinions and comments, to my recollection.