Wednesday, October 15, 2014

The failing "success story"...

We reed at Reuters that "Greek stocks plummet as bond yield surge threatens bailout exit"! The over optimism of the Greek government turned out to be a huge bomb they have been playing with for a very long time. Perhaps, in an attempt to shape expectations, or to tame the animal spirits... 

Anyway, as I wrote a few months earlier the borrowing cost was,  is and will remain prohibitive for a very long time. Until we raise adequate budget surpluses to finance our debt obligations, including annual interest payments, we cannot cut all ties with the IMF. Why particularly the IMF? Because, our Euro partners will find it hard to convince their tax payers to fund us even more, and the markets know that. 

Added to the enormous borrowing cost, considerable political unrest is about to unveil. Naturally, after almost five years of continuous social turmoil - increasing unemployment, poverty, social exclusion, income losses - it would be naive to expect political stability.

If you ask me, I do not believe that we are going to roll back; its the over optimism that will be cracked down by the markets. So, if you were one of those expecting a much better 2015, please, reconsider. Hopefully, it will be a little better... Deflation from abroad will shadow any higher growth momentum.

P.S.: You may read the "Recent Developments" section (paragraphs 4 to 13) of the "Fifth Review" of the IMF, and judge by yourselves how "over" the over optimism has been. More about "Greece and the IMF" here.